shopify inventory disagrees for Trail Boot Size 9
Potential exposure
$127.64
Verified loss
—
Confidence
high 96%
Why?
- Warehouse inventory authority is high
- Event ledger reconstructs expected available including reserved
- SKU mapping is exact (100%)
- Source snapshot is within the audit window
What happened
Shadow state expects 125 sellable units of TRAIL-BOOT-9. shopify reports 123. Difference: -2 units.
Why we think this happened
Sales, receipts and reservations reconcile to 125 available, but shopify never absorbed 2 unit(s). Typical causes: failed inventory webhook, location mapping gap, or unrecorded damage at the storefront.
Calculation
2 units × $63.82 contribution = $127.64 potential exposure. Not booked as loss until the missing units are proven unsellable.
potential_exposure = abs(observed_available - expected_available) × contribution_margin_per_unit
Evidence
Expected available · axiotra · TRAIL-BOOT-9
opening 100 + receipts 50 + returns 4 + damaged -2 − sold 21 − reserved 6
125
shopify available · shopify · TRAIL-BOOT-9
shopify-default on_hand=129 available=123 reserved=6
123
Warehouse available · warehouse · TRAIL-BOOT-9
authority=high on_hand=131
125
Unit contribution · axiotra · TRAIL-BOOT-9
Sale $120.00 Discount −$0.00 COGS −$43.00 Marketplace fee −$0.00 Payment fee −$3.48 Shipping −$6.50 Refund impact −$0.00 Fulfillment −$3.20 -------------------------------- Contribution profit $63.82
$127.64
Timeline
2026-09-11 21:00:00 UTC
Opening on-hand reconstructed
axiotra · 100 units
2026-08-20 09:00:00 UTC
Warehouse receipt
warehouse · +50
2026-09-11 10:14:00 UTC
shopify available observed
shopify · 123 vs expected 125
Recommended action
Re-read warehouse and storefront inventory. If warehouse remains authoritative and no open return exists, recommend a +correction on the storefront after approval.
Autopilot eligibility: eligible for recommend / retry
Displayed amount $127.64 is potential exposure — not a promise of recovery.