shopify inventory disagrees for Carbon Trek Pole
Potential exposure
$525.60
Verified loss
—
Confidence
high 96%
Why?
- Warehouse inventory authority is high
- Event ledger reconstructs expected available including reserved
- SKU mapping is exact (100%)
- Source snapshot is within the audit window
What happened
Shadow state expects 52 sellable units of TREK-POLE-C. shopify reports 37. Difference: -15 units.
Why we think this happened
Sales, receipts and reservations reconcile to 52 available, but shopify never absorbed 15 unit(s). Typical causes: failed inventory webhook, location mapping gap, or unrecorded damage at the storefront.
Calculation
15 units × $35.04 contribution = $525.60 potential exposure. Not booked as loss until the missing units are proven unsellable.
potential_exposure = abs(observed_available - expected_available) × contribution_margin_per_unit
Evidence
Expected available · axiotra · TREK-POLE-C
opening 55 + receipts 18 + returns 0 + damaged -1 − sold 17 − reserved 3
52
shopify available · shopify · TREK-POLE-C
shopify-default on_hand=40 available=37 reserved=3
37
Warehouse available · warehouse · TREK-POLE-C
authority=high on_hand=55
52
Unit contribution · axiotra · TREK-POLE-C
Sale $78.00 Discount −$0.00 COGS −$31.00 Marketplace fee −$0.00 Payment fee −$2.26 Shipping −$6.50 Refund impact −$0.00 Fulfillment −$3.20 -------------------------------- Contribution profit $35.04
$525.60
Timeline
2026-09-11 21:00:00 UTC
Opening on-hand reconstructed
axiotra · 55 units
2026-08-20 09:00:00 UTC
Warehouse receipt
warehouse · +18
2026-09-11 10:14:00 UTC
shopify available observed
shopify · 37 vs expected 52
Recommended action
Re-read warehouse and storefront inventory. If warehouse remains authoritative and no open return exists, recommend a +correction on the storefront after approval.
Autopilot eligibility: human approval required
Displayed amount $525.60 is potential exposure — not a promise of recovery.